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Aston Villa could be top at Christmas – but what does history tell us about what that means?
Aston Villa's Spanish head coach Unai Emery celebrates after winning at the end of the English Premier League football match between Aston Villa and Arsenal at Villa Park in Birmingham, central England on December 9, 2023. Aston Villa wins 1 - 0 against Arsenal. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images)
By Will Jeanes
Dec 21, 2023
30
If results go their way over the coming days, Aston Villa will be top of the Premier League on Christmas Day for the first time since 1998.
A victory at home against bottom club Sheffield United on Friday and a draw between leaders Arsenal and second-placed Liverpool on Saturday would leave Unai Emery’s team a point clear. It is possible Villa could still be top even if Liverpool win, but they would have to beat Sheffield United by at least six goals.
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Few would have thought this possible a little more than a year ago when manager Steven Gerrard was sacked with the club only outside the relegation places on goals scored.
Yet the team’s improvement under Emery has been so great that they are fighting it out with the elite teams as the season approaches the halfway mark.
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If Villa aren’t in first place on Monday, then it will be one of Arsenal or Liverpool. Both of these sides have topped the table on Christmas Day in recent years, but as we know, this is far from a guarantee of glory at the end of the season.
So, The Athletic has taken a quick tour through history and picked out some notable numbers and narratives when it comes to leading the English top flight on December 25.
Which club has done it the most often? Which team has failed to win the league the most times after being table-toppers at Christmas? How many sides have been top on the famous date just once? We answer all of that and more.
Firstly, the information in this article refers to the teams who were top on the morning of Christmas Day, not the end. Matches used to regularly take place on December 25 — with the league standings therefore changing — but there hasn’t been a top-flight game in England on Christmas Day since 1965 (Blackpool 4-2 Blackburn Rovers, if you are wondering.)
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Thirty-one clubs have been in first place in the English top flight on Christmas Day, with Preston North End in the inaugural season in 1888 the first and Arsenal in 2022 the latest to do so.
Below is the most recent occasion each club to have been top on Christmas Day has achieved the feat.
Preston are the side whose most recent appearance at the top of the table on December 25 was the longest ago. They followed up their undefeated campaign in 1888-89 by winning the title again the following season, after being top of the pile on Christmas Day (1889) once more. The Lancashire team haven’t been top of the league on December 25 or won the title since.
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The two other clubs who haven’t been top on Christmas Day since the 19th century are Notts County and Sheffield United.
Notts County, who finished third in 1890-91, were the first side to fail to win the title after leading on December 25. That season also marks the club’s joint-highest finish in the top flight (along with 1900-01).
Sheffield United were pipped to the title by Aston Villa in 1899-1900 after losing to Burnley in their final game and haven’t finished in the top three since.
Overall, 10 of the 31 clubs who have been top on Christmas Day have not repeated the feat since the Second World War.
Eleven clubs have been top on December 25 in the Premier League era — Norwich City, Blackburn Rovers, Aston Villa, Leeds United, Newcastle United, Manchester United, Leicester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal.
Leicester and Chelsea are the only two of these clubs who had never previously been top of the division on December 25 before the Premier League’s invention in 1992.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa will be hoping to make 2023 just the second year since the 19th century in which they have been top on Christmas Day – 1893, 1896, 1897, 1898 and 1998 are the previous times they have been in first on December 25 and they have gone on to win the title on three of those occasions (1893-94, 1896-97 and 1898-99).
The last time they were top — under John Gregory in 1998 — they ended up finishing sixth. This is the only time from 1982 onwards that a team top on Christmas Day has finished outside the top four.
Furthermore, Villa are the only club to finish outside the top five after leading at Christmas more than once. The table below lists all instances of a team being top on December 25 and then finishing the season in sixth place or lower (three points for a win was introduced in 1981-82 and the points column for the seasons before this has not been adjusted to reflect that).
Collapsing after leading at Christmas
TEAMSEASONPOINTS CLEAR ON DEC 25FINAL POSITION
Aston Villa
1897-98
1
6
West Brom
1902-03
1
7
Manchester City
1912-13
0
6
Sunderland
1936-37
1
8
Brentford
1937-38
1
6
Derby
1938-39
1
6
Liverpool
1949-50
3
8
Middlesbrough
1950-51
2
6
Blackburn
1963-64
0
7
Manchester United
1971-72
4
8
Swansea City
1981-82
1
6
Aston Villa
1998-99
3
6
Villa were three points clear of Gianluca Vialli’s Chelsea on December 25, 1998, after losing just two of their first 18 games. However, they won only five of their remaining 20 matches and finished 24 points behind title winners Manchester United.
Here is every club that has been top on Christmas Day more than once.
Liverpool, who head the list with 20, have won the title 19 times and Manchester United in second, with 18, have won it 20 times.
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Everton and Arsenal are joint third, with nine each. Yet while Arsenal were top on Christmas Day last year, Everton haven’t done it since 1969. The London club have topped the table on December 25 on five occasions since then.
Bolton Wanderers (top in 1891 and 1958) and Norwich City (1988 and 1992) are the only sides to have been first at Christmas more than once and never won the title in their history.
And here is every club that has been top on Christmas Day just once.
Top of table at Christmas just once
CLUBYEAR TOP AT CHRISTMAS
Notts County
1890
Sheffield United
1899
Oldham Athletic
1914
Cardiff City
1923
Brentford
1937
Derby County
1938
Middlesbrough
1950
Portsmouth
1951
Swansea City
1981
Leicester City
2015
Leicester are the only one of these sides who went on to win the league in that season.
There have been 124 completed seasons of the English top flight and the team in first place at Christmas has won the title 56 times (45 per cent).
The past six instances of a team leading on Christmas Day and failing to get over the line have all involved either Liverpool or Arsenal.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side came second in 2022-23 and Arsene Wenger’s team came third in 2007-08. While Rafael Benitez’s Liverpool came second to Manchester United in 2008-09, Brendan Rodgers’ team were runners up to Manchester City in 2013-14 and Jurgen Klopp’s men suffered the same fate in 2018-19 and then came third (with City winning the league) in 2020-21.
So if it is to be one of Liverpool or Arsenal who are top on Monday, then Aston Villa (and Manchester City) fans can take some heart from recent history.
Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United in 2003-04 is the last time another team failed to win the title after being top at Christmas.
Overall, Liverpool have failed to win the title despite being top on Christmas Day nine times — which is the most of any club.
Just three of the 31 clubs to have been top on Christmas Day have a 100 per cent record of turning that lead into a title win: Chelsea (five times), Preston (twice) and Leicester (once).
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All five of Chelsea’s titles after leading on December 25 have come in the Premier League era — 2004-05, 2005-06, 2009-10, 2014-15 and 2016-17. The only other time they have won the English top flight — in 1954-55 — they were in fourth place at Christmas, with Wolverhampton Wanderers top.
We know for sure that Manchester City won’t be top on Monday, but this shouldn’t concern Pep Guardiola too much.
Of the past six times the club have won the Premier League, only twice have they been top at Christmas (in the 2017-18 and 2021-22 campaigns).
When they were crowned champions in 2013-14, they were third at Christmas and one point off the top; in 2018-19, they were second and four points off the pace; in 2020-21, they were eighth and eight points behind; and last season, they were in second and five points off the top.
Recent history tells us that whoever of Aston Villa, Liverpool or Arsenal is top as the bells ring on Christmas Day on Monday, they would be wise to be looking over their shoulders at the blue half of Manchester.
And for some bonus festive fun, here are the six men to have played in the Premier League who were born on Christmas Day.
Robbie Elliott is the only one to have played for a team that has been top on Christmas Day — Newcastle in 1995 and 2001.
In 1995, Kevin Keegan’s team were 10 points clear of Manchester United on December 25 but ended up finishing second to Ferguson’s side by four points and in 2001 Sir Bobby Robson’s side were three points clear of Arsenal on Christmas Day but finished in fourth place — 16 points behind Wenger’s title-winning team.